Texas 2017 Post-Election Survey

From March 20 to April 13, 2017, ESRL employees and undergraduate students conducted interviews as part of a class project who were enrolled in Political Analysis, taught by Dr. Jared Perkins, and Introduction to American Government, taught by Dr. Sara Norman.

The employees and students called registered voters in the state of Texas and had 442 completed surveys. Interviews were administered on both landline and cell phones. The margin of error was ±4.6 at the 95% confidence interval. The sample was weighted based on age from the 2015 population estimate obtained from the Texas Demographic Center.

President Donald Trump’s Approval Rating

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?

Approve 43%

Disapprove 49%

Don’t Know 6%

Refuse 1%

President Donald Trump’s Approval Rating and Party Identification

Republican

Democrat Independent

Something Else

Approve

65%

2% 15%

16%

Disapprove

5%

36% 40%

15%

Don’t Know

36%

12% 47%

5%

Refuse

13%

9% 31%

47%

Sixty-five percent of Texas voters that identify as a Republican approve of how President Trump is handling his job as President, but 36% are undecided.

Many Texas voters that identify as a Democrat (36%) disapprove of how President Trump is handling his job as President.

Most Texas voters that identify as an Independent are undecided (47%) how President Trump is handling his job as President. In addition, 40% disapprove and 31% refused to answer.

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The survey questionnaire can be found here: ESRL Spring 2017 Survey

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Posted in Approval Ratings, U.S. Politics

Donald Trump’s Immigration Policies

According to our 2016 Election Survey, a majority of Texans (50%, 260 respondent votes) will cast their presidential vote for Republican nominee Donald Trump (Graph 1). Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, follows with 34% support. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 5% support for president, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has only 2% support.

Graph 1: Presidential Candidate Support in Texas

candidate-support

Although our results show strong support for Trump, respondents do not seem to support his immigration policies. Graph 2 shows the results of Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States, and Graph 3 illustrates the results of his policy to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. As you can see, Texas is very much divided on these issues even though they strongly support Donald Trump.

Graph 2: Donald Trump’s Temporary Ban on Muslims

trump-muslims

Graph 3: Donald Trump’s Wall Proposal

trump-wall

There is an explanation for this. Party loyalty. Texas has historically been a red state since 1980 and supports conservative principals. But how conservative? Take a look at the graphs below. Our survey asked respondents whether they identified themselves as Republican (37%), Democrat (23%), Independent (27%), or Something Else (11%). For those that identified as a Republican, 25% of the respondents said that they are a “not so strong Republican” (Graph 4).

Graph 4: Party Identification in Texas

party-id

Graph 5: Strong or Not So Strong Republican

strong-republican

What does all of this look like together, you might ask? The cross-tabulation below shows the frequencies comparing presidential candidate support and Trump’s policy proposals for immigration. Initially, Trump had 260 respondent votes and according to this, 64 respondents do not support his proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States (Table 1).

Table 1: Cross-Tabulation of Presidential Candidate Support and

Donald Trump’s Temporary Ban on Muslims

Do you support Donald Trump’s policy to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States? Yes No Don’t Know Refuse
Hillary Clinton 18 153 2 1
Donald Trump 196 37 21 6
Gary Johnson 13 13 0 0
Jill Stein 5 6 1 0
Some other candidate 3 7 2 0
Don’t Know 8 14 5 0
Refuse 0 6 0 1

As for Trump’s plan to build a wall, he has a little more support with 211 respondents. Not much, but a little more (Table 2).

Table 2: Cross-Tabulation of Presidential Candidate Support and

Donald Trump’s Wall Proposal

Do you support Donald Trump’s policy to build a wall between the United States and Mexico? Yes No Don’t Know Refuse
Hillary Clinton 12 162 0 0
Donald Trump 211 34 14 1
Gary Johnson 8 17 0 0
Jill Stein 3 8 1 0
Some other candidate 3 6 3 0
Don’t Know 8 18 1 0
Refuse 2 4 0 1

How conservative are Trump’s immigration policy proposals? Very conservative, to say the least. A reason that people support Trump and not necessarily his policy issues is due to party loyalty. Most people identify with the Republican or Democratic Party and vote accordingly, regardless of nominee’s policy proposals. Party identification is the best predictor of how people will vote and I think our results show that.

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The margin of error is ± 4.2 at the 95% confidence level. The survey questionnaire can be found here: codebook-final.

The Earl Survey Research Lab (ESRL) at Texas Tech University administered a survey to registered voters in the state of Texas from October 11 to November 3, 2016. Undergraduate students conducted interviews as part of a class project who were enrolled in Political Analysis and Environmental Law, taught by Dr. Jared Perkins, and Introduction to American Government, taught by Dr. Sara Norman. ESRL interviewers conducted surveys as well.

 

Posted in Immigration, U.S. Politics