According to our 2016 Election Survey, a majority of Texans (50%, 260 respondent votes) will cast their presidential vote for Republican nominee Donald Trump (Graph 1). Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, follows with 34% support. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 5% support for president, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has only 2% support.
Graph 1: Presidential Candidate Support in Texas
Although our results show strong support for Trump, respondents do not seem to support his immigration policies. Graph 2 shows the results of Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States, and Graph 3 illustrates the results of his policy to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. As you can see, Texas is very much divided on these issues even though they strongly support Donald Trump.
Graph 2: Donald Trump’s Temporary Ban on Muslims
Graph 3: Donald Trump’s Wall Proposal
There is an explanation for this. Party loyalty. Texas has historically been a red state since 1980 and supports conservative principals. But how conservative? Take a look at the graphs below. Our survey asked respondents whether they identified themselves as Republican (37%), Democrat (23%), Independent (27%), or Something Else (11%). For those that identified as a Republican, 25% of the respondents said that they are a “not so strong Republican” (Graph 4).
Graph 4: Party Identification in Texas
Graph 5: Strong or Not So Strong Republican
What does all of this look like together, you might ask? The cross-tabulation below shows the frequencies comparing presidential candidate support and Trump’s policy proposals for immigration. Initially, Trump had 260 respondent votes and according to this, 64 respondents do not support his proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States (Table 1).
Table 1: Cross-Tabulation of Presidential Candidate Support and
Donald Trump’s Temporary Ban on Muslims
|Do you support Donald Trump’s policy to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States?||Yes||No||Don’t Know||Refuse|
|Some other candidate||3||7||2||0|
As for Trump’s plan to build a wall, he has a little more support with 211 respondents. Not much, but a little more (Table 2).
Table 2: Cross-Tabulation of Presidential Candidate Support and
Donald Trump’s Wall Proposal
|Do you support Donald Trump’s policy to build a wall between the United States and Mexico?||Yes||No||Don’t Know||Refuse|
|Some other candidate||3||6||3||0|
How conservative are Trump’s immigration policy proposals? Very conservative, to say the least. A reason that people support Trump and not necessarily his policy issues is due to party loyalty. Most people identify with the Republican or Democratic Party and vote accordingly, regardless of nominee’s policy proposals. Party identification is the best predictor of how people will vote and I think our results show that.
The margin of error is ± 4.2 at the 95% confidence level. The survey questionnaire can be found here: codebook-final.
The Earl Survey Research Lab (ESRL) at Texas Tech University administered a survey to registered voters in the state of Texas from October 11 to November 3, 2016. Undergraduate students conducted interviews as part of a class project who were enrolled in Political Analysis and Environmental Law, taught by Dr. Jared Perkins, and Introduction to American Government, taught by Dr. Sara Norman. ESRL interviewers conducted surveys as well.